Australian Rules Football (Round 9)

[Dr.T]

Geelong at Western Bulldogs
pick: WB +33.5 (bet365)

Both teams are 4-4. Geelong won the Grand Final last year. WB has played both of the recent expansion teams (Gold Coast/GWS) while the Cats have played a tougher schedule. I have Geelong #8 while the Bulldogs are #12 out of the 18 teams.

Geelong has played 4 road games and have a 58 point win as well as losses by 4, 17 and 50 in those games away from home.

WB's coach McCarthy used to coach at Geelong so he should be familiar with the team. Geelong has won the last two meetings easily so that does worry me some. WB leads the league in disposals and contested possessions.

I think Geelong wins and goes to 5-4 as they try to make it into the top 8 which makes it into the playoffs. However, I think the home team can stay within 30 points. GL!

Western Bulldogs +33.5

 

[Dr.T]

Port Adelaide at Gold Coast
10:15pm eastern Friday

pick: Gold Coast +12.5 (Pinnacle)

Gold Coast is 0-8 but two of their home losses were by 7 to Freemantle (5-3) and by 17 to Essendon (7-1). Gold Coast is a 2011 expansion team and did lose at GWS this year. GWS is this year's expansion team.

Port Adelaide lost to Gold Coast last year by 3 points after leading most of the match. The Power is 2-6 and their two wins were at home by just 4 and 2 points.

I won't be shocked by a Port Adelaide cover as they should be motivated by losing last year but I have to pick the home underdog. This may be their chance to help avoid the Wooden Spoon (last place). GL!

Gold Coast (+12.5)

 

[Dr.T]

Essendon at Greater Western Sydney
5:50am ET SATURDAY
pick: GWS +69.5

GWS is the 2012 expansion team that has one win against Gold Coast, who was an expansion team back in 2011. GWS is playing their first game in their new stadium against Essendon, who is 7-1.

Essendon has played the last three games at home but their road games have all been close:

at 3-5 New Melbourne (won by 2)
at 0-8 Gold Coast (won by 17)
vs. Collingwood (lost by 1) actually neutral game on Anzac Day

This line just came out late on Thursday night as Essendon is expected to rest some key players like Fletcher. GWS has won by 27 but their losses were by 63, 129, 81, 46, 42, 67 and by 92 last week as they got behind and rested some players.

I won't be shocked to see Essendon steamroll the home team but I think that GWS can stay within 50 to 60. My guess is 110-55.

GWS +69.5

 

[Dr.T]

Geelong at Western Bulldogs
pick: WB +33.5 (bet365)

Both teams are 4-4. Geelong won the Grand Final last year. WB has played both of the recent expansion teams (Gold Coast/GWS) while the Cats have played a tougher schedule. I have Geelong #8 while the Bulldogs are #12 out of the 18 teams.

Geelong has played 4 road games and have a 58 point win as well as losses by 4, 17 and 50 in those games away from home.

WB's coach McCarthy used to coach at Geelong so he should be familiar with the team. Geelong has won the last two meetings easily so that does worry me some. WB leads the league in disposals and contested possessions.

I think Geelong wins and goes to 5-4 as they try to make it into the top 8 which makes it into the playoffs. However, I think the home team can stay within 30 points. GL!

Western Bulldogs +33.5

WB +points is a winner. The line did move down to +28.5 closer to game time.

Geelong wins the game 95-75.

 

[Dr.T]

Port Adelaide at Gold Coast
10:15pm eastern Friday

pick: Gold Coast +12.5 (Pinnacle)

Gold Coast is 0-8 but two of their home losses were by 7 to Freemantle (5-3) and by 17 to Essendon (7-1). Gold Coast is a 2011 expansion team and did lose at GWS this year. GWS is this year's expansion team.

Port Adelaide lost to Gold Coast last year by 3 points after leading most of the match. The Power is 2-6 and their two wins were at home by just 4 and 2 points.

I won't be shocked by a Port Adelaide cover as they should be motivated by losing last year but I have to pick the home underdog. This may be their chance to help avoid the Wooden Spoon (last place). GL!

Gold Coast (+12.5)

LOST this pick as GC was only down 49-48 at half but lost 118-70.

 

[Dr.T]

Essendon at Greater Western Sydney
5:50am ET SATURDAY
pick: GWS +69.5

GWS is the 2012 expansion team that has one win against Gold Coast, who was an expansion team back in 2011. GWS is playing their first game in their new stadium against Essendon, who is 7-1.

Essendon has played the last three games at home but their road games have all been close:

at 3-5 New Melbourne (won by 2)
at 0-8 Gold Coast (won by 17)
vs. Collingwood (lost by 1) actually neutral game on Anzac Day

This line just came out late on Thursday night as Essendon is expected to rest some key players like Fletcher. GWS has won by 27 but their losses were by 63, 129, 81, 46, 42, 67 and by 92 last week as they got behind and rested some players.

I won't be shocked to see Essendon steamroll the home team but I think that GWS can stay within 50 to 60. My guess is 110-55.

GWS +69.5

Winner as Essendon wins the game by 66 points (119-53).